The Actual Learning Curve of a Real Surgeon

Background

I tracked the surgical procedures of a real-life novice surgeon in their first year of performing prostatectomy cases and captured their total procedure duration for each case. I then fit a log-linear regression model to understand whether a learning curve can identified with high confidence; Also included is the Surgeon’s rate at which they complete cases (average procedures completed per day) over the same period.

Summary

Figure 1 below demonstrates a clear learning curve in procedure duration for prostatectomy cases over the course of a novice surgeon’s first year (where they completed around 80 total cases). As experience increases, the efficiency gained from ‘learning’ results in each case taking an average of 25% less time to complete from start to finish, and furthermore, this surgeon is able to perform 3X more cases per day on average.

Figure 1 - Learning Curve in Procedure Duration for a Novice Prostatectomy Surgeon

Plot Insights

As this surgeon gains experience, they take overall less time to finish the surgery, and their observed procedure durations have less variability¹, becoming more and more predictible:

• January 2020: Surgeon has limited prostetectomy case experience, and Surgeon’s procedures take between 100 amd 160 minutes to complete.
• January 2021: Surgeon has completed around 80 prior cases and Surgeon’s procedures take between 83 and 95 minutes to complete.

Additionally as surgeon progresses through their first year of procedures, they are able to complete cases at an increasing rate:

• January 2020: Surgeon has limited/no prostetectomy case experience, and surgeon performs cases at an average rate of 1 case every 6 days
• January 2021: Surgeon has completed around 80 prior cases, and surgeon performs cases at an average rate of 1 case every 2 days

Footnotes

1. This is consistent with a surgery like prostetectomy where case complexity remains relatively consistent across patients.